Geopolitik: Worst Case Szenario für Lybien ist plausibel

Obwohl Libyen für die Finanzmärkte nicht so ein grosser Einfluss auf Finanzmärkte hat (im Gegensatz zu Saudarabien), könnte sich der aussenpolitische Rahmen im Mittleren Osten verschlechtern. 


Einige aussenpolitische Experten haben leider ein sehr plausibles Worst Case Szenario für Libyen entwickelt:

1. We arm the "rebels"

2. Find this is both not enough and Qaddafi's forces overrun, confiscate,
and use arms against rebels and coalition air forces

3. We try air assault against Qaddafi's ground forces

4. Find this is insufficient and leads to excessive collateral damage

5. We try to convince coalition to place boots on the ground

6. Notably France and other members reject land invasion

7. NATO can't gain consensus to modify Resolution 1973

8. United States bites the bullet, air assaults known Qaddafi military bases, and
lands troops in Libya

9. Muslim nations raise unified cry that U.S. interest is Libyan oil and
Qaddafi becomes a hero with broad-based Islamic support, notably Iran

10. We pull troops from Afghanistan (not a bad thing, just not soon enough) for Libyan engagements (rings just like from Afghanistan in 2002 to prep for Iraq)

11. Pakistani ISI and TTP move with impunity across the FATA and begin
retaking Afghanistan (sounds like May 2002 ­- summer 2003)

12. Meanwhile Qaddafi's forces melt into southern Libyan desert leaving us
with a broken country #1 (courts won't allow confiscated billions to be
used by "coalition" for Libyan rebuilding), a latent desert threat, and
Afghan as broken country #2

13. Iran sees this as opportunity to "Balkanize" Iraq and presses
negotiations with Syria, Turkey, the Kingdom, and Jordan to carve out pieces of Iraq for all